Global oil production is set to reach 105.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, marking an increase of 2.7 million bpd, according to the latest forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The rise reflects OPEC+’s decision to gradually ease earlier production cuts, strengthening supply across key markets.

The IEA also projects production climbing further to 107.9 million bpd in 2026, while global demand is expected to grow by 740,000 bpd next year. In August, crude supply edged up to 106.9 million bpd, supported by higher refinery runs. Refinery output rose by 400,000 bpd to reach 85.1 million bpd, though a seasonal dip of 3.5 million bpd is anticipated in October due to widespread maintenance.

Looking ahead, the IEA expects oil demand to rise by 2.5 million bpd between 2024 and 2030, leveling off near 105.5 million bpd by decade’s end, signaling a gradual shift toward a plateau in consumption.